One of the peculiarities of my job is that I am forever explaining to people who read my content. I’m not exactly complaining about that, but it popped up again last week when I wrote a fresh ranking of the top prospects still in the minors (a list that was almost immediately out of date, as that same day the Dbacks sent Jordan Lawlar back down, and a few days later the Royals called Jac Caglianone up, and now Kyle Teel is up, and why do I bother…).
If you’re here, you probably know what those prospect rankings are about – it’s how good I think those prospects will be in the long term, trying to balance their potential upsides (reward) with the chances they don’t reach those ceilings (risks). It’s not a ranking of who’s having the best season right now, which is by far the most common response/complaint/whine I get in the comments or on social media whenever I post one of these lists: how the hell could you leave Joey Bagodonuts off this list? He’s doing X Y and Z and he’s so handsome!
Which puts me in the uncomfortable position of having to explain why a prospect who is playing well (maybe) doesn’t have that great of an outlook, or has some question mark … basically I have to spend most of my time answering comments on an article about the best players by explaining why other players aren’t as good. As I’m writing this, I’m wondering if this doesn’t sound as weird to you as it feels to me, but it kind of feels like raining on my own parade. I’m here to talk about the best prospects, and I spend all my time saying these other guys suck. (They don’t suck, but a tiny subset of readers sure do take it that way.)
It's not just in the comments, though; I get it on radio from time to time as well, and that’s always awkward. Local radio hosts who want to talk about prospects are gems – they’re certainly the exception, and I appreciate it when any program asks me to come on and discuss that for even part of the segment. It’s fine until we get to someone like Otto Kemp, to pick one name of an overperforming minor leaguer; Kemp plays for the Phillies’ AAA team and is hitting .324/.417/.616 this year with 14 homers and some big exit velocities, so of course people have noticed him. He’s not that much of a prospect, because he’s 25 and can’t hit breaking stuff unless someone hangs a slider for him out of the kindness of their hearts. He'll get a callup at some point and I hope he has some big hits or another great moment, but my job is to be realistic about what these players are likely to become in the long term. If I’m on a radio program or a podcast and someone brings up an Otto Kemp, the question is fair, but the answer amounts to me becoming the wettest blanket by saying the guy isn’t that good. (That hasn’t happened with Kemp specifically on radio, but I do get some comments about him because the stat line looks so promising.)
I’m not even sure what my point was here any more … I probably should have written this over the weekend when the idea was fresher in my head, and now it sounds like something I should have sent to the complaints department (/dev/null). That inner conflict between being a guy who likes players and wants to see prospects succeed and also being someone who often says things like “sorry, your favorite prospect Joey Bagodonuts isn’t very good” always rattles my brain, I guess.
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all this ridiculous dog wants to do is lie in the sun and frolic in the foliage.
Since the last newsletter, I’ve posted that updated ranking of the top 50 prospects in the minors; a scouting notebook on Aidan Miller, Max Anderson, and others; and a post on six prospects who’ve seen their stock rise or fall significantly this year. I also wrote a news story on Wake Forest baseball coach Tom Walter using a homophobic slur, apparently towards an opposing player, and his inadequate apology. I also held a Klawchat on my own site on Thursday.
At Paste, I reviewed the excellent new two-player board game Zenith, which has a tug-of-war mechanic at the heart of it, with players playing cards to fight for control of five different planets between them.
On the dish, I reviewed the movie Sinners; and the novels Assumption, I Am Not Sidney Poitier, and The Unicorn Woman. I also posted a new music update for May.
And finally, congratulations to my friend Will Leitch on the release of his newest novel, Lloyd McNeil’s Last Ride, which has the coveted “soon to be a major motion picture!” tag as well. I just got it, so I haven’t read it yet, but I’m fully expecting to love it based on his last two books, and if not, well, I’ll just tell him that all his favorite Cardinals prospects are terrible.
Stay sane.
Keith
You leave Quinn Mathews out of this.
I read this whole newsletter only to find out my favorite prospect Joey Bagodonuts actually sucks.